India's Energy Paradox: Coal and Nuclear Expansion Imperil Ambitious Climate Targets

Aprominent Power and Climate Policy Analyst, Shankar Sharma, has delivered a comprehensive representation to the Secretary of Power and other senior Union officials, cautioning that India's extensive plans for new coal and nuclear power generation pose a substantial threat to the country's climate goals. The analyst has called for an urgent 'paradigm shift' in India's power sector, highlighting that without a holistic National Energy Policy, the nation risks facing 'unmitigated ecological and social disasters'.

Sharma's representation critically questions whether planned additions of 97,000 MW of coal and lignite-based thermal capacity by 2035, alongside an ambitious target of 100,000 MW of nuclear power capacity by 2047, are consistent with India's declared commitment to an ever-increasing share of renewable energy. The analyst points to the current energy landscape where solar energy already significantly influences daily grid operations, yet the inflexible nature of coal-fired plants frequently leads to the curtailment of renewable energy. This curtailment resulted in substantial financial losses, estimated at ₹629 crore in foregone electricity during recent cycles.

Beyond economic implications, the environmental and social costs are considerable. Sharma highlighted severe resource strains associated with these large-scale thermal and nuclear expansions. These include the diversion of vast tracts of forest and agricultural lands for power plants and their associated transmission lines, which will inevitably degrade ecological health and reduce agricultural output. Furthermore, the massive fresh water requirements for additional thermal and nuclear capacities are projected to exacerbate existing water security threats across the nation. A report by the independent energy think tank Ember also warned that India's coal expansion plans could double methane emissions from its domestic coal sector by 2029, posing a 'considerable risk' for the country's short-term warming impact and domestic emissions reduction targets.

India has established ambitious climate commitments, including a net-zero emissions target by 2070. The nation's updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035 aim to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 47% from 2005 levels and achieve a 60% share of non-fossil sources in installed electricity capacity. India also pledges to expand its forest and tree cover to absorb up to 4.0 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2035. Notably, India has already surpassed its previous 2030 targets, achieving over 50% non-fossil fuel installed capacity in 2025—five years ahead of schedule—and reducing its GDP's emissions intensity by 36% between 2005 and 2020.

Despite these achievements and targets, India faces a complex challenge: meeting skyrocketing electricity demand driven by rapid economic growth and development aspirations. Electricity demand is projected to increase two to three times by 2050. Currently, coal accounts for approximately 70% of India's electricity generation and nearly three-quarters of its power generation, making it a critical, albeit carbon-intensive, energy source for grid stability and baseload power. The government's long-term strategy for energy security and development, including the 'Viksit Bharat 2047' vision, therefore includes ramping up coal power capacity to 307 GW by 2034-35 from 212 GW, and significantly expanding nuclear energy.

In a strategic move to address energy demand while aiming for cleaner sources, India is also pursuing a 'Coal-to-Nuclear' (C2N) strategy. This involves repurposing retired or aging thermal power plant sites for new nuclear facilities, leveraging existing land, water, and transmission infrastructure to mitigate challenges like land acquisition and project delays. A dedicated site selection committee has identified 10 such sites, with at least three shortlisted for potential conversion to host 700 MWe or 220 MWe reactors. The Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India (SHANTI) Act 2025 further supports this vision, opening the nuclear sector to private participation. The development of indigenous Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), such as the Bharat Small Modular Reactor (BSMR200), is also a centerpiece of India's nuclear expansion, aiming to achieve 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047.

However, Sharma strongly advocates for prioritizing Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). He notes that while India targets 100 GW of Pumped Hydro Storage (PSP) by 2035-36, such infrastructure can take 10 to 15 years to deliver the necessary storage capacity. In stark contrast, BESS technology can achieve a 10 GWh capacity within just two to three years at considerably lower societal costs. The analyst further urged the Union government to shift away from large-scale power projects, instead prioritizing small-size renewable energy sources like rooftop solar PV systems, micro-grids, BESS, and effective demand-side management to build a truly climate-resilient India. This would not only integrate the growing renewable capacity more effectively but also mitigate the financial and environmental risks posed by over-reliance on traditional large-scale power infrastructure.